Structural Shocks and Migrant Worker Vulnerability in Singapore: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis from 2005 to 2025
Keywords:
Migrant Workers; COVID-19; Global Recession; ITSA; Single Employer; Singapore
Abstract
The large numbers of low-waged migrant workers in Singapore leads to the concentration of employment opportunities in high-risk, low-protection jobs and ties up most workers to single-employer licenses; this relationship stifles injury reporting and limits access to care, and increases occupational vulnerability. This paper is based on a time-series analysis that uses the period of 2005-2025 to model the inflow of migrant workers into Singapore with a time variable, a Post-COVID level indicator and Time×Post-COVID interaction to determine the structural changes around the COVID-19 pandemic. The results indicate that the baseline time trend has a positive effect on the outcome over time (coefficient = 0.0384), that the occurrence of COVID is accompanied by a significant immediate decline of the outcome (coefficient = –0.3227), and that the post-COVID interaction suggests a positive change in the outcome growth thereafter (coefficient = 0.0383). Marginal-effects interpretation demonstrates a negative level effect at the onset of the COVID and faster growth afterward, which provisces that the shock decreased the levels, but was succeeded by an aggravated positive direction. These trends refer to both immediate negative effects of crises, as well as structural processes that require the policy to remedy, such as the enhancement of reporting protective measures, healthcare access, and structural labor reforms of migrant employees.
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Kaur-Gill, S. (2020). The COVID-19 Pandemic and Outbreak Inequality: Mainstream Reporting of Singapore’s Migrant Workers in the Margins. Frontiers in Communication, 5(65), 19. https://doi.org/10.3389/FCOMM.2020.00065
Chin, C. (2019). Precarious Work and its Complicit Network: Migrant Labour in Singapore. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 49(4), 528–551. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2019.1572209
Dutta, M. J. (2020). COVID-19, Authoritarian Neoliberalism, and Precarious Migrant Work in Singapore: Structural Violence and Communicative Inequality. Frontiers in Communication, 5, 18. https://doi.org/10.3389/FCOMM.2020.00058
Lee, W., Neo, A., Tan, S., Cook, A. R., Wong, M. L., Tan, J., Sayampanathan, A. A., Lim, D., Tang, S. Y., Goh, W. L., Chen, M. I.-C., Chen, M. I.-C., & Ho, C. (2014). Health-seeking behaviour of male foreign migrant workers living in a dormitory in Singapore. BMC Health Services Research, 14(1), 300. https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-14-300
Bal, C. S. (2015). Production Politics and Migrant Labour Advocacy in Singapore. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 45(2), 219–242. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2014.960880
Medina, B. M. (2023). Labour Migration and Exclusive State Amidst the Global Pandemic of COVID-19 (pp. 135–154). Springer eBooks. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25748-3_8
Dutta, M. J. (2017). Migration and Health in the Construction Industry: Culturally Centering Voices of Bangladeshi Workers in Singapore. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14(2), 132. https://doi.org/10.3390/IJERPH14020132
Porru, S., & Baldo, M. (2022). Occupational Health and Safety and Migrant Workers: Has Something Changed in the Last Few Years? International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(15), 9535. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19159535
Farwin, A., Low, A. L. Y., Howard, N., & Yi, H. (2023). “My young life, finished already?”: a qualitative study of embedded social stressors and their effects on mental health of low-wage male migrant workers in Singapore. Globalization and Health, 19(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-023-00946-5
Farwin, A., Low, A. L. Y., Howard, N., & Yi, H. (2023). “My young life, finished already?”: a qualitative study of embedded social stressors and their effects on mental health of low-wage male migrant workers in Singapore. Globalization and Health, 19(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-023-00946-5
Lee, Y. J. (2023). An Exploratory Study of Improving Migration of Risks in the Post-COVID-19 Era. 안전문화연구. https://doi.org/10.52902/kjsc.2023.25.397
Thamrin, Y. (2019). A Literature Review of Migrant Workers’ Health and Safety. 1(2), 257–266. https://doi.org/10.30597/JKMMUNHAS.V2I1.30
Wee, K., Goh, C., & Yeoh, B. S. A. (2019). Chutes-and-ladders: the migration industry, conditionality, and the production of precarity among migrant domestic workers in Singapore. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 45(2), 2672–2688. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2018.1528099
Chok, S. (2013). Labour justice and political responsibility: An Ethics-Centred approach to temporary Low-Paid labour migration in Singapore. https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/22465/
Basu Das, S. (2010). Road to Recovery: Singapore’s Journey through the Global Crisis. https://muse.jhu.edu/book/18025
XUE, X. (n.d.). Analysis on the Impact of Financial Crisis on the Employment of Migrant Workers. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2011.07.212
Ong, Y. (2014). Singapore’s Phantom Workers. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 44(3), 443–463. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2013.861005
LONG, J. (n.d.). Thinking about Migrant Workers’ Employment Triggered by Financial Crisis. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1008-5432.2009.04.027
Hamid, W., & Tutt, D. (2019). “Thrown away like a banana leaf”: precarity of labour and precarity of place for Tamil migrant construction workers in Singapore. Construction Management and Economics, 37(9), 513–536. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2019.1595075
Debrah, Y. A., & Ofori, G. (2001). Subcontracting, Foreign Workers and Job Safety in the Singapore Construction Industry. Asia Pacific Business Review, 8(1), 145–166. https://doi.org/10.1080/713999129
Rubdy, R., & McKay, S. L. (2013). “Foreign workers” in Singapore: conflicting discourses, language politics and the negotiation of immigrant identities. International Journal of the Sociology of Language, 2013(222), 157–185. https://doi.org/10.1515/IJSL-2013-0036
Parreñas, R. S., Kantachote, K., & Silvey, R. (2020). Soft violence: migrant domestic worker precarity and the management of unfree labour in Singapore. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2020.1732614
LABOR MIGRATION IN ASIA TRENDS, SKILLS CERTIFICATION, AND SEASONAL WORK. (2024). https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2024/05/labor-migration-in-asia_519732dd/9b45c5c4-en.pdf
Ministry of Manpower. (2024). Foreign Workforce Numbers. Ministry of Manpower Singapore. https://www.mom.gov.sg/foreign-workforce-numbers
Philippine Institute for Development Studies. (n.d.). https://pidswebs.pids.gov.ph/CDN/PUBLICATIONS/pidsdps1124.pdf
Rahman, M. (2006). Working Paper Series No. 57 Foreign Manpower in Singapore: Classes, Policies and Management. https://ari.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/wps06_057.pdf
Ramstetter, E. (n.d.). Experiences with Foreign Workers in Singapore and Malaysia: What are the Lessons for Japan’s Labor Markets? Retrieved January 30, 2026, from https://www.agi.or.jp/media/publications/workingpaper/WP2016-06.pdf
Teng Ang Cheok. (2025, November 17). Migration and Family Policies: Insights from Singapore (POP 15). Studocu. https://www.studocu.com/sg/document/national-university-of-singapore/singapore-studies/migration-and-family-policies-insights-from-singapore-pop-15/145848899
webmaster. (n.d.). Foreign workforce numbers, 2017. TWC2. https://twc2.org.sg/2018/05/22/foreign-workforce-numbers-2017/
Published
2026-02-23
How to Cite
Dahiya, M. (2026). Structural Shocks and Migrant Worker Vulnerability in Singapore: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis from 2005 to 2025. International Journal of Social Science Research and Review, 9(3), 186-197. https://doi.org/10.47814/ijssrr.v9i3.3283
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