Macroeconomic Determinants of Consumer Price Inflation in India: A Study of Recent Trends from 2017 to 2024
Keywords:
Labour Force Participation; Consumer Price Index; Inflation; Economic Growth
Abstract
The paper investigates the correlation of consumer price index with labour force participation and economic growth in India between 2017 to 2024. The analysis involves using secondary data that is sourced from the Ministry of Labour and Employment, the World Bank, the Ministry of Education and Macro trends to explore the effect of the rural and urban labour force participation rates between males and females, their enrolment in secondary schooling, total and planned spending on education and the yearly increase in the GDP on consumer price movements. Since the consumer price index data is non-negative and skewed and the time-series sample used is rather small, Poisson regression is the model used as the major econometric tool. The findings show that the result is high heterogeneity of labour market segments. Male labour force participation in the rural areas has a positive and significant relationship with the consumer price index and a negative significant relationship with female labour force participation. The variables of urban labour force participation are statistically insignificant and there are weaker or less predictable relationships with the price movements. The increase in the gross domestic product is observed to significantly affect the consumer price index negatively, which implies a higher rate of economic growth could alleviate the inflation pressure. The results reveal the significance of the demographic and sectoral differences in the study of the dynamics of inflation and offer policy-related details on labour participation and growth in the determination of price stability.
References
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2. Alemu, F. M. (2024). An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus Between Inflation, Exchange Rate, Unemployment and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: A Granger Casualty Approach. Insight on Africa. https://doi.org/10.1177/09750878241234254
3. Razia, A. S., Omarya, M., Razia, B., Awwad, B. S., & Ruzieh, A. (2023). Examining how unemployment, inflation and their related aspects affected economic growth in Palestine: The period from 1991 to 2020. Heliyon. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21081
4. Denning, J. T., Eide, E. R., Mumford, K. J., Patterson, R. W., & Warnick, M. (2022). Why have college completion rates increased? American Economic Journal Applied Economics, 14(3), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20200525
5. Li, B., & Kang, C. (2013). How Does the Scale and Structure of Funding Affect the Academic Output of Elite Universities? Evidence from Russell Group Universities in the United Kingdom (2013–2022). European Journal of Education, 60(2). https://doi.org/10.1111/ejed.70105
6. Saputra, I. A. G., Subroto, W. T., Sakti, N. C., & Mahendra, A. M. (2024). Decoding Inflation and Unemployment: Exploring the Phillips Curve’s Insights on Short-Term and Long-Term Economic Dynamics. 1(4), 228–241. https://doi.org/10.61132/ijems.v1i4.264
7. Rolim, L. N., Carvalho, L. B. de, & Lang, D. (2024). Monetary policy rules and the inequality-augmented Phillips curve. Economic Modelling, 106780. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106780
8. Oliver, S. (2023). Inflation and employment: Exploring the dynamic relationship in the labor markets. Economics, Management and Sustainability, 8(1), 53–57. https://doi.org/10.14254/jems.2023.8-1.5
9. Hasan, S. A. (2025). Measuring and Analyzing the Interchangeable Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Iraq: Phillips Curve. https://doi.org/10.63841/iue22591
10. Golob, J. E. (1994). Does Inflation Uncertainty Increase with Inflation. Econometric Reviews, 79(3), 27–38. https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/y1994iqiiip27-38nv.79no.3.html
11. Fan, X., Xu, Z., Qin, Y., & Škare, M. (2023). Quantifying the short- and long-run impact of inflation-related price volatility on knowledge asset investment. Journal of Business Research, 165, 114048. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2023.114048
12. Ouyang, Y. (2025). The Economic and Social Case for Reducing College Tuition in the United States. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, 157(1), 52–59. https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/2025.ab22450
13. Inflation and Education Expenditure: Evidence from Egypt. (2022). Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. https://doi.org/10.7176/jesd/13-4-07
14. Frederick, E. F., & Benjamin, U. (2025). This Study Examines the Impact of Inflation on Exchange Rate. International Journal of Management and Business Intelligence, 3(4), 319–336. https://doi.org/10.59890/ijmbi.v3i4.130
15. Öztürk, C. (2025). Nonlinear Relationships Between Inflation, Interest, and Exchange Rates in Türkiye: A Fourier-Based Approach. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 25(3), 103–128. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1589696
16. Dzupire, N. C. (2020). Modeling the Co-Movement of Inflation and Exchange Rate. https://doi.org/10.20944/PREPRINTS202003.0465.V1
17. Monfared, S. S., & Akın, F. (2017). The Relationship Between Exchage Rates and Inflation: The Case of Iran. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 6(4), 329–340. https://doi.org/10.14207/EJSD.2017.V6N4P329
18. Valogo, M. K., Duodu, E., Yusif, H., & Baidoo, S. T. (2023). Effect of exchange rate on inflation in the inflation targeting framework: Is the threshold level relevant? Research in Globalization, 6, 100119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100119
19. Amalia, N. A., Zahra, S. F., & Lestari, F. (2025). Bidirectional relationships between inflation and key monetary indicators in Indonesia: Exploring short- and long-run dynamics. Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies, 5(2), 597–613. https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps.v5i2.1985
20. Wetaifi, A. S. K., Kareem, H. M., & Hassan, A. H. (2024). The impact of money supply on inflation in iraq for the period (2007-2022). The American Journal of Management and Economics Innovations. https://doi.org/10.37547/tajmei/volume06issue01-15
21. Stylianou, T., Nasir, R., & Waqas, M. (2024). The relationship between money supply and inflation in Pakistan. PLOS ONE, 19(3), e0301257. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0301257
22. Gola, A. A., Qamri, G. M., Panhyar, A., Khan, Q., & Ali, I. (2023). Analysing the Role of Money Supply on Inflation: A case Study of Pakistan. iRASD Journal of Economics, 5(4), 1162–1176. https://doi.org/10.52131/joe.2023.0504.0187
23. Sultana, N., Koli, R., & Firoj, M. (2019). Causal Relationship of Money Supply and Inflation: A Study of Bangladesh. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(1), 42–51. https://doi.org/10.18488/JOURNAL.AEFR.2019.91.42.51
24. Okedigba, D. O., Akintola, A. A., Umaru, A., Mcdonald, Q. E., Inusa, E. M., Fashoro, B. O., Etudaiye, I. M., Joshua, R., & Osagu, F. N. (2024). Exploring Sub-Saharan Africa’s Money Supply-Inflation Nexus: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach. Scientific African. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2024.e02111
25. Ariani, D., Ekowahyuningsih, Y., Ansari, L. P., Ulyati, R., Fauzan, A., & Atami, Z. R. (2025). Analysis of the Effect of Inflation on Interest Rates in Indonesia (2015-2024). International Journal of Research and Review, 12(8), 413–417. https://doi.org/10.52403/ijrr.20250848
26. Özker, A. N. (2025). Changes In Unemployment During the Inflation Process in Emerging Markets and Scale Variables on Tax Burden. Power System Technology, 49(3), 2631–2655. https://doi.org/10.52783/pst.2414
27. Saputra, I. A. G., Subroto, W. T., Sakti, N. C., & Mahendra, A. M. (2024). Decoding Inflation and Unemployment: Exploring the Phillips Curve’s Insights on Short-Term and Long-Term Economic Dynamics. 1(4), 228–241. https://doi.org/10.61132/ijems.v1i4.264
28. Saad, E. S. M., Labib, I., & Mobarez, H. (2025). Analyzing the Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Afghanistan (2003-2021). 2(1), 47–59. https://doi.org/10.62810/jssh.v2i1.22
29. Kusumastuti, I., & Sasana, H. S. (2022). Hubungan Kausalitas antara Inflasi dan Pengangguran di Indonesia Tahun 2002 - 2021. Jurnal Sosial Dan Ilmu Ekonomi. https://doi.org/10.36665/jusie.v7i02.657
30. Investigations into Ghana’s Macroeconomics Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment. Quantitative Analysis Based on Time Series in the Years 1990-2014. (2023). Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies, 06(04). https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v6-i4-06
31. Zahir, A., & Rehaimi, H. (2025). Revisiting the Phillips curve: An empirical study of the relationship between inflation and unemployment in North Africa. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 13(2), 159–170. https://doi.org/10.55493/5009.v13i2.5370
32. Shiferaw, Y. A. (2023). An Understanding of How GDP, Unemployment and Inflation Interact and Change across Time and Frequency. Economies, 11(5), 131. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11050131
33. Alpağut, S. (2024). Enflasyon, Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Alt Gelir Grubu Ekonomiler Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi. https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub495.c2064
34. Yurtseven, Ç. (2024). Education system resilience in the face of inflationary pressures. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(11), 7768. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i11.7768
35. Levine, P. B. (2023). Inflation affects the price of everything including a college education. 5(1), 19–22. https://doi.org/10.48028/iiprds/ijsressd.v5.i1.02
36. Pietrolucci, A., Dräger, J., Müller, N., & Albertini, M. (2024). The educational wealth divide in Europe: Post-secondary enrollment gaps across wealth components and countries. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/s4qx6
37. Malec, K., Maitah, M., Rojík, S., Aragaw, A., & Rojík Fulnečková, P. (2024). Inflation, exchange rate, and economic growth in Ethiopia: a time series analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 96, 103561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103561
38. Aprilia, E., Hidayat, A., & Asngari, I. (2024). Causality Between Exchange Rates, Economic Growth and Inflation in Indonesia. Economic Analysis. https://doi.org/10.28934/ea.24.57.1.pp36-52
39. Das, A. (2025). The Interaction Between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Inflation Rate: The Case of India. European Economics Letters, 15(2), 2924–2931. https://doi.org/10.52783/eel.v15i2.3132
40. Ibrahim, M. A., & Kornitasari, Y. (2023). Analisis pengaruh inflasi, cadangan devisa, dan suku bunga terhadap nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar tahun 2016-2020. 2(4), 737–745. https://doi.org/10.21776/jdess.2023.02.4.03
41. Karimah, A. K., Anggraini, T., & Aslami, N. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga Dan Inflasi Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Era Pemulihan Ekonomi Pasca Covid 19 Di Indonesia. Costing. https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v7i2.8940
42. Tadoda, A. F., Kayupa, O. O., Hengkeng, J., & Lawodi, E. (2025). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar (M2) Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Tahun 2008–2022. Interdisciplinary Journal, 3(1), 26–35. https://doi.org/10.61254/idejournal.v3i1.85
43. Sihombing, P. R., Arsani, A. M., Satwika, A., & Rochman, A. (2022). Implementasi model panel var pada hubungan inflasi dan pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar. https://doi.org/10.46306/bay.v2i2.34
44. Okeke, C. C. (2023). The Impact of Money Supply on Inflation in Nigeria (1981 - 2021). https://doi.org/10.59324/ejtas.2023.1(5).16
45. Amalia, N. A., Zahra, S. F., & Lestari, F. (2025). Bidirectional relationships between inflation and key monetary indicators in Indonesia: Exploring short- and long-run dynamics. Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies, 5(2), 597–613. https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps.v5i2.1985
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Published
2026-02-23
How to Cite
Mehra, E. (2026). Macroeconomic Determinants of Consumer Price Inflation in India: A Study of Recent Trends from 2017 to 2024. International Journal of Social Science Research and Review, 9(3), 198-208. https://doi.org/10.47814/ijssrr.v9i3.3284
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